US Senator Raphael Warnock betting favorite for Georgia runoff

Posted on: Nov 24, 2022 10:57 am.

Last updated on: November 24, 2022, 10:58 am.

Georgia’s Democratic US Senator Raphael Warnock is the contestant for the runoff to determine who takes the subordinate seat of the state’s US Senate in January 2023.

Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker Georgia Odds runoff
US Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker greet each other during their October 2022 debate. The two will face off in a runoff on December 6, 2022 to determine the winner of their US Senate election. (Picture: The hill)

Warnock narrowly outstripped his Republican challenger, former soccer star Herschel Walker, in the Nov. 8 election. Warnock received 49.4% of the vote compared to Walker’s 48.5%.

With neither candidate having crossed the 50% threshold as required by Georgian law, the two will face off again on Tuesday, December 6 in less than two weeks. Bettors believe Warnock will go head-to-head in the absence of another candidate ensuring they meet the 50% minimum.

Political online betting exchange PredictIt has Warnock in the driver’s seat, its share of the runoff win trading at 82 cents. Momentum is behind the incumbent as his shares were trading slightly lower at 78 cents just a week ago.

Profit shares on PredictIt redeem for $1. But that’s before the political betting exchange gets its 10% profit cut. PredictIt also charges a 5% processing fee for all withdrawals. The site does not charge for losses or stocks sold at the same or lower price than originally purchased.

Race remains important

The morning after the November 6 election, it seemed as if Georgia’s runoff could decide the power of the Senate. But that was resolved after Democrats managed to paint Pennsylvania’s vacant Senate seat blue with Senator-elect John Fetterman and incumbent Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada managed to hold on to their seats.

With only Georgia unresolved, the US Senate’s record as of January 3, 2023 is Democrat with 50 seats and Republican with 49 seats. With 50 seats under her control and Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the casting vote in the chamber in the event of a deadlock on legislation, President Joe Biden’s party has already managed to retain control of the Senate for at least another two years.

But if Walker is able to pull off a rare Republican upset during the 2022 midterm election, the GOP could take control of the Senate should it win the presidency two years from now.

A 50/50 Senate would also reduce Democrat power by 2024 as committees would share power. Democrats could also not block votes if even one of their senators was absent from a chamber vote. Finally, a 50-50 deadlock could allow a breakaway Democrat to single-handedly stop a bill he opposes or unilaterally block a Senate confirmation.

Biden back

The 2022 midterms revitalized Biden’s political career. The president, who turned 80 this week, had a strong chance of serving a second term in the White House before his party averted the expected “red wave.”

Bettors now like Biden’s odds in two years. The President is the frontrunner in betting on PredictIt to win the 2024 presidential election, his shares are trading at 30 cents. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is next at 28 cents and former President Donald Trump is third at 22 cents.