The betting markets don’t give Georgia Tech much of a chance in the latest installment of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate, and neither does the analysis.
It should be noted that Georgia Tech won a few games against ranked teams when they were significant underdogs. They traveled en route to Pitt when they were three touchdown underdogs and won straight away against the Panthers. Last weekend, Georgia Tech took to the streets again as an underdog with three touchdowns against No. 13 North Carolina and defeated the Tar Heels.
The Yellow Jackets haven’t been able to beat the Bulldogs since 2016 and games haven’t been close in the years since. Interim head coach Brent Key has a tall order just trying to make this game competitive.
Vegas have Georgia Tech as a 35.5-point underdog heading into Athens this Saturday, but what do SP+ and ESPN’s FPI have to say about this encounter?
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words, “FPI is a predictive scoring system designed to measure team strength and project performance in the future. FPI’s ultimate goal is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but to correctly predict games and season results. If Vegas had ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite similar to FPI.”
FPI gives Georgia a 98.7% chance of winning on Saturday.
It’s not much different with Bill Connelly and his SP+ system.
Here’s what SP+ is in Connelly’s own words:
“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football’s effectiveness. I developed the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as I’ve gained experience with both college football and its stats, I’ve made a few changes to the system.”
“SP+ is designed to be forward-thinking and forward-thinking. It’s not a resume ranking that recognizes big victories or particularly bold plans – it’s not a good prediction system. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or underwhelming with a win, your rating will likely drop. If you are strong and unhappy when you lose, it will likely go up.”
SP+ is the most pessimistic about Georgia Tech’s chances. It predicts a 48-0 win for Georgia and gives the Bulldogs a 100 percent chance of winning.
Once again, Georgia Tech must prove everyone and the computers wrong.
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia kicks off in Athens on Saturday afternoon. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
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