Will the season be cold and snowy?

Winter is fast approaching, but will New Hampshire have a lot of snow and cold, or will it be milder than usual? Last winter was pretty tame for most people, but it brought a lot of ups and downs. It seemed like every week in December meteorologists were talking about freezing rain and ice, while a late January blizzard caused blizzards along the coast. There weren’t many large storms in February and March, but there were many cold spells and warm-ups. There are a few trends that could hint at what this winter will bring to New Hampshire. This is expected to be the third consecutive winter with a La Niña when water temperatures off the west coast of South America are cooler than normal. This year these waters are running only slightly cooler than normal. When there is a weak La Niña, US winters tend to be drier in the south and more active in the north. But there aren’t strong correlations between a weak La Niña and large impacts on New Hampshire’s weather. It was a record-breakingly warm start to November. In Concord, the month runs nearly 10 degrees above normal. High temperatures above 70 degrees were observed five times this month. Does a warm November tell us a lot about the upcoming winter? It turns out it can. In years when November had several days with temperatures of 70 degrees or higher, the following winters had near-normal to below-average snowfall. A pattern that can often predict New England weather is called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Negative phases of this pattern typically bring colder air and more storms in winter. The only problem is that these are often difficult to predict more than a week or two later, so not much will be known about them until winter really gets going. All things considered, forecasters are leaning toward this New Hampshire winter seen above — normal temperatures and average slightly below-average snowfall. But it only takes a pattern change and a big storm to change winter completely.

Winter is fast approaching, but will New Hampshire have a lot of snow and cold, or will it be milder than usual?

Last winter was pretty tame for most people, but it brought with it a lot of ups and downs. It seemed like forecasters were talking about freezing rain and ice every week in December, while a blizzard in late January caused blizzards along the seashore.

There weren’t many big storms in February and March, but there were plenty of cold spells and warm-ups.

There are some trends that could hint at what this winter will bring to New Hampshire.

This is expected to be the third consecutive winter with a La Niña when water temperatures off the west coast of South America are cooler than normal. This year these waters are running only slightly cooler than normal.

When there is a weak La Niña, US winters tend to be drier in the south and more active in the north. But there aren’t strong correlations between a weak La Niña and large impacts on New Hampshire’s weather.

It was a record-breaking start to November. In Concord, the month runs nearly 10 degrees above normal. High temperatures above 70 degrees were observed five times this month.

Does a warm November tell us a lot about the upcoming winter? It turns out it can. In years when November had several days with temperatures of 70 degrees or higher, subsequent winters had near-normal to below-average snowfall.

A pattern that can often predict New England weather is called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Negative phases of this pattern typically bring colder air and more storms in winter. The only problem is that these are often difficult to predict, more than a week or two in advance, so not much will be known about them until winter really gets going.

All in all, forecasters are leaning towards this winter in New Hampshire with above-average temperatures and slightly below-average snowfall on average. But it only takes a pattern change and a big storm to change winter completely.

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